ECB: 46 basis points (99% probability of rate increase at the next meeting)

2027: 73 bp

BoJ: 42 basis points (probability of 75% of rate increase at the next meeting)

2027: 111 basis points

Fed: 33 basis points (50% probability of rate increase at the next meeting)

2027: 46 basis points

RBA: 30 basis points (69% probability of rate increase at the next meeting)

2027: 32 bp

BoE: 26 bp (91% probability of no change at the next meeting)

2027: 66 bp

BoC: 26 basis points (67% probability of no change at the next meeting)

2027: 99 bp

RBNZ: 25 basis points (76% probability of no change at the next meeting)

2027: 86 bp

SNS: 5 basis points (99% probability of no change at the next meeting)

2027: 44 basis points

• Market repricing: Market expectations have remained largely unchanged for most central banks, except for RBA and BoC.

• Repricing of the RBA: Repricing hawkish due to a monthly report of the Australian CPI higher than expected, with an annual increase of 3.6% and a monthly increase of 0.5%.

• Repricing of the BoC: Repricing dovish after the collapse of trade negotiations between the United States and Canada and the resulting customs duties, which prompted the Bank of Canada to adopt a less hawkish position.

• Impact of the Fed's speech: Current "underset" transactions such as long precious metals, bitcoin and the short US dollar will probably continue according to the Fed's discourse.

• Fed's position on easing: If the Fed indicates that the recent relaxation of financial conditions could complicate the return of inflation to the target, the market could tighten financial conditions.

• Time and availability of comments: The Fed speech is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. GMT/10 a.m. ET, and prepared remarks are usually published shortly before or at the same time.

Sources