PCE M/M
Actual: 0.3%
Previous: 0.1% (July)
Sharp acceleration, the largest increase in several months
Core PCE M/M
Actual: 0.2%
Previous: 0.1% (July)
PCE Y/Y
Actual: 3.4%
Consistent with the already-analyzed CPI in this series at the same level
Core PCE Y/Y, the Fed's most closely watched measure
Actual: 3.0%
A psychological threshold crossed, clearly above the 2% target
Consumer spending, a sharp rebound
Real PCE m/m: +0.6% (0.9% in current dollars)
Previous: +0.1% in July
Strong acceleration, driven by goods (+$114.1 billion) more than services (+$76.7 billion)
Household income
Personal income m/m: +0.2% (previous: 0.3%)
Real disposable income m/m: 0.0% (previous: 0.3%), a notable stall despite the spending pickup
Saving rate: 4.1%
The real signal, consumption outpacing income
Real disposable income is stalling (0.0%) while real consumption jumps (+0.6%), meaning households are drawing down savings or borrowing more to sustain their spending pace
This pattern generally isn't sustainable indefinitely, worth watching over coming months if income doesn't catch up
Full consistency with this series' already-documented Fed narrative
This PCE lands the day after the already-analyzed strong ADP (+90,000 jobs), confirming the same message, an economy accelerating rather than slowing
Core PCE at 3.0% directly validates Warsh's argument about an economy "still too hot" and further undermines Waller's disinflation thesis, which conditioned his Fed hike support on disinflation signs he thought he was seeing
Consistent with core CPI already surprising to the upside (0.3% versus 0.2% expected) and PPI (+0.4%, diesel +24%), this release closes the loop, inflation is now spreading through to the Fed's preferred measure
Annual revisions, worth keeping in mind
This release incorporates the annual update to the National Economic Accounts, with revisions going back to January 2021
Compensation data for January-March 2026 revised with BLS QCEW figures, consistent with the methodology revision already noted in the prior day's ADP
This double methodological revision (BEA and ADP the same week) warrants caution on strict comparability with prior months
Implications
DXY: strongly reinforced bullish bias, this PCE is the test Waller himself identified as decisive, and the result leans clearly hawkish
Consistent with the already-documented Fed pricing (37bp expected by year-end, 71% odds of an October hike), this print should push that probability even higher
The combination of strong ADP + core PCE at 3.0% + oil rising again after the rejected Iran proposal forms a set of mutually reinforcing hawkish catalysts this week
EUR/USD, GBP/USD: likely downward pressure, the conviction gap between a Fed increasingly pushed toward further tightening and more hesitant central banks like the ECB (hold odds rising to 54% documented this week) could widen further
Point of caution
The gap between strong consumption and stalling income is the most important structural point to watch, spending funded by drawing down savings rather than rising income isn't as solid a health signal as it appears on the surface
Thursday's ISM manufacturing and Friday's NFP remain the next tests, but this PCE has already largely settled the Warsh/Waller debate in favor of the hawkish camp even before those releases