Initial registrations deseasonally decreased to 203,000, down 4,000 over the week, after an upward revision of the previous figure (206,000 to 207,000). 4-week moving average at 205,500, slightly up 1,250.

Stable rate at 1.2%. Level at 1,778,000, down 18,000 over the week. Over one year, clear improvement, 1,778,000 compared to 1,942,000 last year, and rate at 1.2% against 1.3%.

Solid figure, below the usual market consensus (around 225-230k), and consistent with the underlying trend since spring, the 4-week average has oscillated in a stable band (200-210k) for several months. There is no sign of deterioration in the labour market at this stage, despite occasional upward revisions.

Michigan (-2,446), California (-1,432) and South Carolina (-1 136) have the largest declines, with precise sectoral explanations for Michigan (fewer layoffs in manufacturing). Kentucky (+518) and Ohio (+342) stand out upwards, without breaking the national trend.

Slightly bullish bias for the dollar on this isolated figure, a resisting labor market reinforces the argument of a cautious Fed on rate cuts. But this signal must be read in tension with the broader context, the Bessent/Warsh disagreement on who should control long rates, and the Treasury's intervention on debt buybacks that weighs structurally on the dollar.

Volatile weekly data by nature, difficult to deseasonalize. A good isolated figure does not reverse the fragile dollar narrative built in recent weeks, to be confirmed with the full September NFP rather than with this publication alone.