Q2 2026 GDP
Actual: +0.2% (quarterly)
Previous Q1: +0.9%
Sharp slowdown after a strong quarter
Annual GDP
Actual: +1.7% (year ended June 2026)
International comparison: NZ in line with OECD average, but below many peers (Canada +1.1% quarterly, China +0.9%)
Real disposable income (RGNDI)
Actual: -0.4% quarterly
Per capita: -0.6%
Decline tied to deteriorating terms of trade
Terms of trade
Export prices: +3.5%
Import prices: +13.8%
Massive gap eroding national purchasing power
The real signal, direct and documented oil shock impact on GDP
Stats NZ devotes an entire section of the release to the Middle East conflict's impact this quarter, notable methodological transparency
Fuel retailing volumes, largest quarterly decline since COVID (Q3 2021)
Accommodation and food services: -3.8%, a direct sign of declining discretionary spending
Household consumption transport group: -1.6%, motor fuel pulling back
Consistent with the pattern already documented in this series (RBNZ, Australia GDP), where discretionary consumption retreats under fuel cost pressure
Import prices, historic increases
Refined petroleum imports: +5.3% by volume but +63.8% in current prices
Processed fuels and lubricants imports (including diesel): +19.8% by volume but +123.8% in current prices
Largest gasoline import price increase since December 1990
Largest processed fuel price increase ever recorded (data since 1990)
These figures confirm with unprecedented precision in this series the scale of the energy shock already documented globally
Composition, construction and public administration carry growth
Construction: +2.7%, driven by residential building
Public administration and safety: +2.0%
Health: +0.8%
These sectors offset general weakness, but remain less cycle-sensitive than the private sector
Notable weakness, transport and retail
Transport, postal and warehousing: -1.7%, driven by road transport
Retail trade and accommodation: -1.0%
Exports, a bright spot
Exports of goods and services: +3.3%, driven by meat and dairy products
Consistent with the export sector resilience already noted in the RBNZ speech analyzed earlier in this series
International comparison
NZ at 0.2% quarterly, clearly lagging Canada (0.8%), China (0.9%) and the eurozone (0.6%)
Confirms a sharper New Zealand slowdown than developed peers this quarter
Implications
NZD: bearish signal, this sharp slowdown (0.9% to 0.2%) after the already-analyzed RBNZ hike could reinforce the dovish camp within the committee that was already worried about the fragility of the recovery
Consistent with the more cautious RBNZ tone documented in the central bank repricing analysis, where NZD already stood out with the most relative dovish bias despite the delivered hike
NZD/USD: with the Fed having just confirmed a longer tightening cycle than expected, the economic momentum gap between the two countries could amplify the downward pressure already flagged on this pair
The decline in real purchasing power (RGNDI) is an additional fragility signal that could weigh on consumption in coming quarters
Point of caution
This print confirms quarter after quarter the pattern already established in this series, the oil shock doesn't just inflate prices, it directly and measurably weighs on real activity via discretionary spending
Stats NZ's transparency in attributing the conflict's impact is valuable for separating cyclical noise from the real structural signal, worth comparing against upcoming releases to see whether the effect eases as fuel prices stabilize or worsens if the conflict escalates further