RBA
Year-end: 41bp (previous: 38bp)
Next meeting hike odds: 99% (previous: 85%)
2027 cumulative: 65bp (previous: 61bp)
Fed
Year-end: 37bp (previous: 50bp, including 25bp delivered on September 16)
Next meeting (October) hike odds: 71%
2027 cumulative: 92bp (previous: 91bp)
RBNZ
Year-end: 37bp (previous: 35bp)
Next meeting hike odds: 81% (previous: 54%)
2027 cumulative: 125bp (previous: 119bp)
BoC
Year-end: 35bp (previous: 38bp)
Next meeting hike odds: 65% (previous: 58%)
2027 cumulative: 140bp (previous: 132bp), the highest in the group
BoE
Year-end: 34bp (previous: 51bp, before the September 17 hold)
Next meeting hike odds: 80% (previous: 57% hold odds for the September meeting)
2027 cumulative: 106bp (previous: 111bp)
ECB
Year-end: 33bp (previous: 37bp)
Next meeting hold odds: 54% (previous: 62% hike odds)
2027 cumulative: 99bp (previous: 82bp), the largest upward revision in the group
BoJ
Year-end: 21bp (previous: 43bp, including 25bp delivered on September 18)
Next meeting hold odds: 68% (previous: 76% hike odds)
2027 cumulative: 99bp (previous: 111bp)
SNB
Year-end: 10bp (previous: 13bp)
Next meeting hold odds: 62% (previous: 88%)
2027 cumulative: 84bp (previous: 77bp)
The week's backdrop
Early week: oil sharply lower on de-escalation hopes ahead of the UN General Assembly, producing a mild broad-based dovish repricing
Midweek: Trump repeats that a deal with Tehran will come after the November elections, oil rebounds and erases that dovish repricing
Wednesday: US PMIs well above expectations, October Fed hike odds jump to 70%
Friday: hopes revived by talks on a phased deal, with Iran promising to reopen Hormuz within 7 days if its terms are met
The real signal, the Fed rises, the ECB slips
Fed: 25bp were delivered, so the year-end figure isn't comparable in raw terms. 37bp remain priced after the hike, versus roughly 25bp implied last week, a clear upward revision driven by the PMIs and the message of a "timelier" return to 2%
ECB: October hike odds fall from 62% to 46% (54% hold), despite the eurozone PMI at 53.1 and Williamson's explicit call for an October hike. The market appears to weigh early-week oil weakness more than the activity surveys
BoE: November hike odds climb to 80%, consistent with the three dissenting votes on September 17 and the committee's warning of upside-skewed inflation risks
RBA at 99%: near-certainty of a hike, a sharp contrast with the Australian unemployment at 4.6% published this week, which the ABS itself asks users to treat with caution on the seasonally adjusted figure
Update since the article was published
This article dates from Friday and predates Trump's Saturday rejection of Iran's proposal, already analyzed, with oil rising again this Monday
The deal hopes mentioned in the article are therefore partly invalidated, which suggests a hawkish bias at the market open
Implications
USD: sustained bullish bias, the Fed is the only central bank whose remaining tightening expectations rise clearly after a delivered hike
AUD: supported short-term by the 99% hike odds, but vulnerable to any disappointment, the ABS having warned that the August unemployment print may be partly technical
GBP: the November hike expectation supports sterling, to be weighed against the UK flash PMI pointing to growth of only 0.1%, a stagflationary dilemma
EUR: ECB pricing slipping despite a very strong PMI, a gap worth watching that could close in the euro's favor if the final PMI and flash CPI confirm
CAD: the highest 2027 cumulative (140bp) remains a structural medium-term support
CHF: SNB hold odds falling to 62% signals the market starting to consider a first move despite inflation at 0.8%
Point of caution
Year-end comparisons are distorted for the Fed and the BoJ, which delivered 25bp since the last publication, and for the BoE (meeting passed without a move). Read next-meeting odds rather than raw cumulatives
This pricing rests on one dominant variable, the timeline for the war's end. A surprise deal would sink oil and trigger a broad dovish repricing, while a prolonged stalemate, as Saturday's rejection suggests, sustains the hawkish bias
Heavy week of US data (ADP and PCE Wednesday, ISM Thursday, NFP Friday): PCE will be a direct test of the Fed's message on a "timelier" return to 2%