Multi-currency: Rate expectations stabilize, only the BoC is repriced lower after Canadian employment
10/13/2026
BoE
Year-end: 35bp (previous: 31bp)
Next meeting: 86% hike (previous: 82%)
2027 cumulative: 105bp (previous: 92bp), the biggest hawkish move in the group
RBNZ
Year-end: 33bp (previous: 33bp)
Next meeting: 59% hike (previous: 52%)
2027 cumulative: 109bp (previous: 106bp)
Fed
Year-end: 25bp (previous: 25bp)
Next meeting: 80% hold (previous: 76%)
2027 cumulative: 80bp (previous: 80bp)
BoC
Year-end: 21bp (previous: 26bp)
Next meeting: 74% hold (previous: 65%)
2027 cumulative: 105bp (previous: 110bp)
ECB
Year-end: 21bp (previous: 19bp)
Next meeting: 81% hold (previous: 79%)
2027 cumulative: 69bp (previous: 65bp)
BoJ
Year-end: 18bp (previous: 21bp)
Next meeting: 92% hold (previous: 82%)
2027 cumulative: 90bp (previous: 90bp)
RBA
Year-end: 12bp (previous: 10bp)
Next meeting: 74% hold (previous: 75%)
2027 cumulative: 24bp (previous: 24bp)
SNB
Year-end: 7bp (previous: 4bp)
Next meeting: 72% hold (previous: 85%)
2027 cumulative: 59bp (previous: 56bp)
The real signal, a week without catalysts where only oil moved rates
Expectations are largely unchanged, with no major data releases or policy decisions
Reports of possible US strikes on Iran ahead of the midterms first triggered a slight hawkish repricing
Trump then ruled out attacks before the midterms on Truth Social and pointed to productive talks with Tehran: oil pulled back and part of the move reversed
This is the same pattern as in previous weeks of this series: each statement on the US-Iran file moves oil first, then rates
BoC, the only real repricing of the week
Canadian September employment: -68.3K versus +9.2K expected, already analyzed in this series
Probability of a hike at the October meeting: about 21% after the release, versus 42% before
Year-end cumulative falls from 26bp to 21bp and 2027 cumulative from 110bp to 105bp
Hold odds gain 9 points, from 65% to 74%, confirming the read of the previous analysis: the BoC loses an argument to tighten
BoE, the sharpest contrast in the group
Year-end cumulative rises to 35bp, the highest in the group ahead of the RBNZ (33bp)
2027 cumulative increases by 13bp to 105bp
While other central banks stabilize or retreat, the BoE stands out with 86% hike odds at the next meeting, consistent with UK CPI at 3.1% and the QT already announced
Fed, a hold that firms up slightly
Hold odds move from 76% to 80%, or about 20% hike odds, versus about 15% right after the NFP
The cumulative stays at 25bp for the year and 80bp by end of 2027
The market remains in a pause mindset after Williams, Jefferson and the +29K NFP, with CPI as the next test
What moves at the margin
BoJ: 92% hold (+10 points), year-end cumulative down from 21bp to 18bp
SNB: hold odds fall from 85% to 72%, or about 28% hike odds at the next meeting, a notable shift for the most relaxed central bank in the group
ECB: 2027 cumulative at 69bp (+4bp), the market does not extend the previous week’s drop
RBNZ: hike probability up from 52% to 59%
Implications
US dollar: no new catalyst, this week’s US CPI becomes the arbiter for the dollar
Canadian dollar: bearish bias after the employment report, with the BoC falling behind the others on the 2027 rate gap
Sterling: the BoE remains the most hawkish central bank in the group, a relative support for the pound against other majors
Yen: 92% hold at the BoJ, little short-term support coming from rates
Swiss franc: the rising SNB tightening probability (from 15% to 28%) deserves attention, even though hold remains the clear majority
Oil: any progress on Iran’s response to the US proposal could trigger another broad dovish repricing, while renewed tensions would keep hawkish expectations intact
Point of caution
The article dates from Friday, October 9 at 14:43, before the events of early this week: probabilities may have moved since, especially if US CPI has already been released
The text cites about 21% hike odds for the BoC while the table shows 74% hold, or about 26% hike: the gap likely comes from timestamps, to be read as a 21 to 26% range
The 2027 cumulatives represent total tightening expected by end of 2027, not tightening in 2027 alone
The week’s stability does not signal consensus: markets await Iran’s response and CPI, two events capable of quickly reviving the moves
