Fed
Year-end: 50bp (from 33bp last week)
Next meeting hike odds: 87%
2027 cumulative: 91bp
BoE
Year-end: 51bp (from 26bp)
Next meeting hold odds: 57%
2027 cumulative: 111bp
BoJ
Year-end: 43bp
Next meeting hike odds: 76%
2027 cumulative: 111bp
RBA
Year-end: 38bp (from 30bp)
Next meeting hike odds: 85%
2027 cumulative: 61bp
BoC
Year-end: 38bp (from 26bp)
Next meeting hike odds: 58%
2027 cumulative: 132bp, the highest in the group
ECB
Year-end: 37bp
Next meeting hike odds: 62%
2027 cumulative: 82bp
RBNZ
Year-end: 35bp (from 25bp)
Next meeting hike odds: 54%
2027 cumulative: 119bp
SNB
Year-end: 13bp (from 5bp)
Next meeting hold odds: 88%
2027 cumulative: 77bp
The real driver, oil reshuffles every deck at once
Breaking the $100/barrel psychological threshold identified as the main catalyst for this repricing
Broad-based move across every central bank without exception, including the SNB, the group's least hawkish member
Consistent with the cross-cutting narrative documented throughout this analysis series (RBNZ, BoC, ECB, US ISM, PPI, Canada CPI), the Middle East oil shock is now the dominant macro factor, more so than any isolated domestic dynamic
The Fed-specific catalyst
September hike now sealed after Friday's hotter-than-expected core CPI
Direct confirmation of the repricing already anticipated in this series' US CPI analysis, where core m/m at 0.3% (vs 0.2% consensus) was flagged as the most dollar-positive scenario
Hike odds moved from 67% (pre-CPI) to 87% after, consistent with that trajectory
The structural point, BoC leads on the 2027 horizon
Highest 2027 cumulative in the group (132bp), a sign the market anticipates a particularly sustained tightening cycle in Canada
Consistent with the already-analyzed Canadian CPI showing ex-gasoline core acceleration (2.4% versus 2.2%), which may have reinforced this read
Implications
USD: broad bullish bias confirmed, the Fed shows the sharpest absolute move (33bp to 50bp), consistent with the CPI + PPI + stabilized claims convergence documented this week
All currencies: with the move broad-based across every central bank, cross-pairs between "developed" currencies could stay in relatively tight ranges short-term, the real differentiator becoming the relative scale of repricing rather than direction (everyone turning more hawkish)
CAD: the highest 2027 cumulative (132bp) could support a structural positive bias medium-term if this trajectory holds, despite near-term USD/CAD uncertainty
Commodities, oil: the fact that rate markets are reacting this strongly to the $100 level confirms this threshold has become a major psychological reference point for markets broadly, not just energy itself
Point of caution
The article's quote, "everyone is an oil trader now," neatly sums up the situation, the dominant macro variable is no longer each country's domestic monetary policy but how the Middle East conflict evolves and its impact on oil
This simultaneous, broad-based repricing leaves markets vulnerable to an equally fast reversal if the conflict de-escalates or oil falls back below $100, a scenario worth watching closely rather than ignoring