Monthly GDP (m/m)
Actual: +0.1%
Consensus: -0.1%
Previous: +0.4% (July, unrevised)
GDP 3 months on 3 months
Actual: +0.7%
Previous: +0.5% (revised up from +0.4%)
Eighth consecutive three-month growth
Industrial production (m/m)
Actual: +0.8%
Consensus: -0.1%
Previous: +0.3% (July, revised up from +0.2%)
Manufacturing production (m/m)
Actual: +1.2%
Consensus: -0.1%
Previous: +1.0% (July, revised up from +0.9%)
Index of Services 3m/3m
Actual: +0.9%
Consensus: +0.8%
Previous: +0.7% (revised up from +0.6%)
Construction output (m/m)
Actual: -0.2%
Consensus: 0.0%
Previous: -0.5% (July, revised down from +0.1%)
Goods trade balance
Actual: -£18.0B
Consensus: -£21.9B
Previous: -£19.3B
The real signal, a positive surprise that hides a single engine
Production (+0.8%) offsets services with zero growth on the month: the sector usually dominates the UK economy, but it did not contribute in August
Monthly services growth for July (+0.5%) and June (+0.5%) was revised up, which strengthens the three-month momentum
GDP for July and June is also revised up, at +0.4% each, versus +0.3% for June before revision
Year over year, GDP is up +1.8% over three months (+2.1% for August alone), the highest since late 2022
Production, a rebound driven by few sectors
Manufacturing: +1.2% on the month, with 9 of 13 subsectors higher
Pharmaceuticals: +5.1% in August, after +3.4% in July
Transport equipment: +1.8% after -1.0% in July
Over three months, manufacturing grows only +0.1%, and total production falls -0.2%
Mining and quarrying: +1.4% on the month
Services, growth is concentrated
Professional, scientific and technical services: +2.8% over three months, including computer programming and consultancy +5.0%
Wholesale trade: +3.8% on the month after five consecutive monthly falls
Administrative and support services: -1.7% on the month
Consumer-facing services: -0.3% on the month, with food and beverage service -2.7% and sports and recreation activities -7.1%
Consumer-facing services: +0.4% over three months
Construction, persistent weakness
Output: -0.2% in August, fourth consecutive monthly fall, -1.0% over three months
Private housing new work: -1.9% on the month and -3.2% over three months
July revised down to -0.5%: new company returns replaced previously imputed values
Leading indicators for September
Energy prices: wholesale gas and electricity still double their level a year ago, and fuel prices keep rising
Consumer demand weaker: retail footfall down, fuel quantity purchased per transaction down
Housing: Energy Performance Certificates for new dwellings down for the second consecutive month, time on market up
Labour market: increase in potential redundancies (HR1 forms) after three monthly declines
Businesses: 73% report concern about fuel price increases and 72% about energy prices, the highest since March 2026
Consistency with this series
July GDP at +0.4% and the September flash PMI at 51.7 (a three-month low) were already documented in this series, the +0.1% quarterly growth implied by the PMI contrasts with the +0.7% in GDP
August UK CPI at 3.1% and petrol at its highest since 2022 are reflected in the leading indicators
The BoE held at 3.75% (6-3 vote) on 17/09, with 86% hike odds at the next meeting in the latest repricing
Implications
GBP: short-term support, GDP above expectations and upward revisions strengthen the three BoE dissenters (Greene, Mann, Pill) in favor of a hike to 4%
BoE: hike odds already at 86% should hold, solid growth weakens the case for a pause despite a weakened labor market (unemployment at 4.9%)
GBP/USD: the move should be read alongside the dollar, with US CPI at 3.7% and claims at 197K supporting the USD
Oil: energy remains the main risk to UK consumption, a US-Iran deal would quickly change this read
Point of caution
The positive surprise comes from a very volatile production month (+0.8% after -0.2% in June), and production is still down 0.2% over three months
Monthly Business Survey response rates are 88.7% for services, 90.4% for production and 85.4% for construction, versus 97% to 98% on average in 2024 and 2025: further revisions are likely
Services show zero growth in August, after two months at +0.5%: the main engine of the UK economy is slowing
September leading indicators (consumption, housing, potential redundancies) point to a slowdown, with energy costs rising
Consensus figures come from the screenshot provided, to be confirmed against the economic calendar source