CPI Y/Y
Actual: 1.0%
Index level: 101.5 (base December 2025 = 100)
CPI M/M
Actual: 0.0%, complete monthly stability
Core inflation 1 Y/Y (ex fresh/seasonal products, energy, fuel)
Actual: 0.5%
Sharp gap versus headline, a sign of a concentrated shock
Domestic products Y/Y
Actual: 0.7%
M/M: -0.2%
Imported products Y/Y
Actual: 2.1%
M/M: +0.5%
Clear gap versus domestic products, consistent with an externally sourced shock
The real signal, two opposing forces nearly perfectly canceling out
The monthly stability (0.0%) masks considerable internal moves that offset each other
Heating oil, petrol and diesel sharply higher on one side, package holidays, car rental and hotels sharply lower on the other
Consistent with the signal already documented in last week's SNB statement in this series, which explicitly cited oil products as the driver of goods inflation
The energy factor, spectacular scale on certain items
Heating oil y/y: +65.0%, +8.2% on the month alone
Diesel y/y: +28.7%, +4.4% on the month
Petrol y/y: +19.9%, +3.3% on the month
Energy and fuels (aggregate group) y/y: +11.7%
These figures, well above those already documented for other countries in this series, confirm the relative scale of the Swiss energy shock exceeds even what's been observed elsewhere, though the starting point (overall inflation) remains far lower
The travel factor, near-perfect offset
International package holidays y/y: -1.1%, -3.9% on the month
Parahotel accommodation y/y: +0.5%, but -11.2% on the month
Car rental/car sharing: -12.3% y/y, -14.2% on the month
Hotels: +0.9% y/y, -1.2% on the month
These heavily weighted index items (1.67% for package holidays, 1.5% for hotels) are enough to nearly fully neutralize the energy shock's effect on the monthly headline
Goods vs services, the real structural divergence
Goods y/y: +0.9%, m/m: +0.4%
Services y/y: +1.0%, m/m: -0.3%
Private services y/y: +1.2%, m/m: -0.4%, the sharpest decline of any category
Index ex petroleum products, isolating the pure energy effect
Actual y/y: 0.3% (versus 1.0% with oil included)
A direct quantified demonstration, petroleum products (just 2.1% of index weight) alone contribute 0.7 point of total annual inflation
Full consistency with the already-analyzed SNB statement in this series
The SNB noted last week that goods inflation turned positive for the first time since May 2024, "mainly driven by higher prices for oil products"
This release confirms and precisely quantifies that diagnosis, with figures showing the oil shock's scale is far more pronounced than the SNB's qualitative comment alone suggested
The SNB also noted currently elevated energy inflation should ease in 2027, consistent with this September print's largely offset nature (travel, hospitality)
Already-documented privileged access
The SNB received the results 4 working days ahead of publication, per law, for its monetary policy
Consistent with the similar practice already noted for the BoE on UK employment data in this series, a recurring structural factor among central banks rather than an isolated exception
Implications
CHF: this print doesn't fundamentally change the read already established last week, the SNB remains the most relaxed central bank in the developed bloc documented in this series, with inflation staying largely under control despite the oil shock
Monthly stability (0.0%) and a barely positive core 2 (0.7%) justify no change from the already-confirmed 0% status quo
EUR/CHF, USD/CHF: this CPI brings no direct catalyst, the policy gap with the ECB (accelerating) and the Fed (whose pricing just strengthened sharply this week after ADP, PCE and revised GDP) remains the dominant factor, not Swiss inflation itself
Point of caution
The near-perfect offset between energy and travel this month is partly seasonal (end of summer season for package holidays), a different month could see these two forces no longer cancel out as cleanly
The ex-petroleum index at just 0.3% y/y is the most revealing figure of the true Swiss underlying trend, well below the 1.0% headline, confirming the SNB's comfortable room already documented last week