Decision
Actual: held at 0%
Sight deposit remuneration unchanged, 0.25pt discount above threshold unchanged
Swiss CPI
Actual: 0.8% in August
Previous: 0.6% in May
Modest rise, driven by goods inflation turning positive for the first time since May 2024
Conditional inflation forecast (annual average)
2026: 0.7%
2027: 0.8%
2028: 0.8%
Revised slightly higher versus the last assessment, both near and medium term
Swiss GDP growth
Q2 2026: exceptionally strong
Partly driven by an unusually robust chemicals/pharmaceuticals performance, overstating underlying momentum
Even excluding that effect, growth judged solid and broad-based
Growth projection
2026: between 1.5% and 2%
2027: around 1.5%
The real signal, the SNB remains the most relaxed central bank in the developed bloc
A total contrast with the pattern documented throughout this series (Fed, ECB, BoE, BOJ, RBA all tightening or close to it), the SNB confirms a calm status quo
Swiss inflation at 0.8% stays well below levels seen elsewhere (UK at 3.1%, eurozone accelerating, US at 3.4%), Switzerland simply doesn't have the same inflation problem
Consistent with the pricing already documented in the weekly central bank repricing analysis, the SNB already showed the lowest odds of movement in the group
The oil factor, present but far less dramatic than elsewhere
Rising oil product prices explicitly cited as driving goods inflation
But the scale is nowhere near the shocks documented elsewhere (UK petrol at its highest since 2022, US diesel +24% in a month, UK gas +78%)
The SNB actually expects this elevated energy inflation to ease during 2027
Swiss franc, a double-edged factor
Recent franc depreciation cited as contributing to the upward revision in medium-term inflation forecasts
But also as a growth support factor, the classic effect of a weaker currency boosting exports
The bank remains ready to intervene in FX markets if needed, an option still open
Labor market, moderate tension signal
Unemployment ticked up slightly through early summer
Capacity utilization below average, notably in manufacturing
Nothing comparable to the deterioration documented in Australia or the UK slowdown, Switzerland shows an economy that remains broadly balanced
The explicitly acknowledged risk, the Middle East once again
The SNB cites the conflict as the main source of uncertainty to its baseline scenario
A scenario of significantly higher-than-expected energy prices would further boost inflation and sharply curb growth
Full consistency with the cross-cutting factor documented in absolutely every analysis in this series
Implications
CHF: neutral to relatively slightly bearish bias, with the SNB clearly staying out of the broad tightening move documented this week (Fed, BOJ, ECB), the rate gap could keep weighing on the franc against currencies whose central banks are actively tightening
Consistent with the weekly repricing analysis where the SNB already showed the group's most relatively dovish bias (99% odds of a hold)
EUR/CHF: with the ECB having just confirmed a possible October acceleration scenario (cf. already-analyzed eurozone PMI), the policy gap could keep widening in the euro's favor
USD/CHF: will mostly depend on broader dollar dynamics, with the Fed having delivered a message judged less hawkish than expected, the gap could stay broadly stable
Point of caution
The SNB itself acknowledges the chemicals/pharma effect artificially inflated the Q2 GDP figure, worth keeping in mind not to overstate genuine Swiss growth momentum
The real directional risk for Switzerland remains, as for every economy documented in this series, an escalation of the Middle East conflict pushing energy prices significantly above expectations, a scenario that would break the SNB's current relative calm