GDP by industry, Canada, June 2026
The number
Real GDP rose 0.3% in June, a third consecutive month of growth, with 13 of 20 sectors contributing positively. Services up 0.4%, goods edged down 0.1%.
Drivers of the increase
Wholesale trade (+1.7%), led by a rebound in machinery and equipment merchant wholesalers. Retail trade (+1.4%), with seven of nine subsectors growing, driven by general merchandise and clothing retailers. Public sector (+0.3%), notably federal public administration (+1.9%) tied to 2026 Census activities. Manufacturing (+0.6%), a third consecutive monthly increase, driven by industrial machinery and automotive.
World Cup effect
Notable but uneven impact on tourism and hospitality, Canada hosted 10 matches in June. Broadcasting (+8.6%), urban transit (+1.7%), food services (+0.6%) up, but accommodation (-0.7%) and air transportation (-0.5%) down, an asymmetric effect worth noting so as not to overstate the overall impact.
The weak spot of the month
Mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction down 0.6%, following two months of growth. Support activities for oil and gas extraction fell sharply (-9.3%), the first decline in seven months. Oil sands extraction hit by heavy rains in northern Alberta.
July advance estimate
GDP essentially unchanged in July per the preliminary estimate, gains in real estate and professional services offset by declines in retail trade and manufacturing. Possible signal of slowdown after three consecutive months of growth, to be confirmed September 29.
Second quarter 2026
Quarterly GDP up 0.9%, a sharp acceleration after just +0.1% in Q1. Oil and gas extraction the largest contributor (+2.2%), manufacturing up sharply (+2.1%) driven by automotive (+8.4% for transportation equipment).
CAD implications
Moderately bullish bias for the Canadian dollar. Three consecutive months of growth reinforce the picture of a resilient economy, which limits the Bank of Canada's room to ease. But the near-flat July advance estimate tempers the enthusiasm and could limit the market reaction. USD/CAD: cautious bearish bias, to be weighed against the already fragile dollar narrative on the US side (Treasury buybacks, Bessent/Warsh tension).
Point of caution
The slowdown suggested by the July advance estimate is the most important signal in this release, not the June figure which already belongs to the past. Avoid overweighting a solid June print without factoring in this preliminary softening signal, which will be confirmed or denied on September 29.