CPI Y/Y
Actual: 3.0%
Previous: 3.0% (July)
Stable result, headline unchanged
CPI M/M
Actual: -0.1% (unadjusted)
Seasonally adjusted actual: +0.2%
CPI ex-gasoline Y/Y, the measure that actually matters
Actual: 2.4%
Previous: 2.2% (July)
Clear acceleration, second consecutive month of increase
The real signal, headline stability masks underlying acceleration
The stable 3.0% headline hides gasoline deceleration offset by acceleration elsewhere
Gasoline Y/Y: 22.8% (versus 25.7% in July), slowing but still elevated
Statistics Canada explicitly notes the Middle East conflict continues to keep prices elevated despite this relative slowdown
Consistent with the energy narrative already documented throughout this series
The driver of the increase, travel and rent
Travel tours Y/Y: +26.1% (versus +15.2% in July), base-year effect plus jet fuel surcharges
Canada saw a sharp drop in US travel in 2025, that base effect is now dropping out of the calculation, mechanically inflating the annual increase
Rent Y/Y: +2.8% (versus +2.5% in July), notable acceleration driven by Manitoba (+4.3%) and Ontario (+2.4%)
Disinflationary signal, groceries
Store-bought food Y/Y: +2.8% (versus +3.1% in July)
First time since July 2024 that grocery inflation has run below headline CPI
Dairy the main contributor to the slowdown (+0.7% versus +3.1% in July)
A positive signal but to be kept in perspective, prices are up 29% since August 2021
Clothing, sharp pullback
Clothing Y/Y: -1.1% (versus +0.9% in July)
Driven by men's (-2.3%) and children's (-1.9%) clothing, reversing July's increases
Regional divergence, Atlantic provinces lead
Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia accelerating
Heating fuel Y/Y: +43.7% (versus +29.5% in July), weighs more heavily in these provinces where fuel oil heating is common
Implications
CAD: mixed signal, the stable headline might reassure at first glance, but the ex-gasoline core acceleration (2.4% versus 2.2%) is the real thing for the BoC to watch
Consistent with Macklem's July speech already analyzed in this series, where the BoC stated it would "not let higher oil prices become persistent inflation," this release directly tests that commitment
USD/CAD: likely limited standalone impact, the pair remains dominated by the global oil narrative and USD dynamics (US CPI that just surprised to the upside)
If the BoC reads this core acceleration as a sign of spillover beyond energy, it could reinforce a more hawkish bias than anticipated at the next meeting
Point of caution
The dramatic travel tours jump (+26.1%) is largely mechanical (base effect), not to be overread as a strong demand signal
The real structural point is the divergence between a stable headline and an ex-gasoline core accelerating for a second consecutive month, exactly the kind of second-round spillover central banks (RBNZ, the BoC itself in July) said they were watching closely